Our Models

Bond Credit Re-Rating Framework

A post-event approach to corporate bond repricing.

A man wearing glasses and a blazer working at a desk, writing in a notebook beside a computer monitor in a modern office.
A man wearing glasses and a blazer working at a desk, writing in a notebook beside a computer monitor in a modern office.

What it is

What is this approach?

Corporate bonds often reprice slowly after balance-sheet repair. This framework focuses on post-event corporate bonds where credit risk has improved but prices have not yet adjusted, documenting the subsequent re-rating process rather than uncertain outcomes.

What the framework does:

  • Identifies corporate bonds exposed to delayed repricing following credit-positive events.

  • Assesses improvements in issuer liquidity and balance-sheet resilience.

  • Monitors the progressive alignment of bond pricing with relevant credit curves.

What the framework does not do:

  • It does not invest in distressed debt or pre-event situations.

  • It does not rely on default recovery scenarios.

  • It does not attempt to time credit cycles or market turning points

Our Models

Bond Credit Re-Rating Framework

When a company's credit improves, its bonds are slow to follow. The window between the event and the repricing is where this strategy operates. Live track record since 2009.

A man wearing glasses and a blazer working at a desk, writing in a notebook beside a computer monitor in a modern office.
A man wearing glasses and a blazer working at a desk, writing in a notebook beside a computer monitor in a modern office.

What it is

What is this approach?

Corporate bonds often reprice slowly after balance-sheet repair. This framework focuses on post-event corporate bonds where credit risk has improved but prices have not yet adjusted, documenting the subsequent re-rating process rather than uncertain outcomes.

What the framework does:

  • Identifies corporate bonds exposed to delayed repricing following credit-positive events.

  • Assesses improvements in issuer liquidity and balance-sheet resilience.

  • Monitors the progressive alignment of bond pricing with relevant credit curves.

What the framework does not do:

  • It does not invest in distressed debt or pre-event situations.

  • It does not rely on default recovery scenarios.

  • It does not attempt to time credit cycles or market turning points

A man wearing glasses and a blazer working at a desk, writing in a notebook beside a computer monitor in a modern office.

What it is

Don't buy in anticipation. Wait until the event is done.

Most credit strategies try to identify companies before they improve. This one waits.

After a confirmed credit-positive event, a capital raise, an asset disposal, a government backstop, a refinancing, the issuer's risk profile has already changed. The bond market takes weeks or months to catch up, constrained by index schedules, mandate restrictions, and the sequential behaviour of institutional buyers.

The strategy enters after the event has resolved and the balance sheet has actually improved. The binary risk, will the event happen, will it work, has been removed. What remains is the repricing the market has not yet completed.

Federico Polese developed this approach managing capital through the 2008 crisis. It has run continuously since 2009.


Six catalyst types. One discipline.

Capital raises, asset disposals, refinancings, regulatory clearance, sovereign support, strategic acquisitions. Different events — same principle: enter only after the risk has been confirmed removed.

67.6% cumulative return. 2015–2023

Live, audited track record on deployed capital. Across negative rate environments, COVID, and the 2022 rate shock. No material drawdown in 2020.

You give up the first 10–15%. You keep the certainty.

Waiting for confirmation means missing the initial move. It also means the binary event risk, will it happen, will it work, is already gone. The position size the certainty supports more than compensates.

Low correlation to equities by design.

Returns are driven by issuer-specific balance-sheet events, not market direction. Spread compression and carry, not beta.

Why It’s Relevant

Returns anchored to events, not to markets

The framework highlights situations where credit risk has already improved but bond prices lag the adjustment, supporting a more controlled assessment of corporate credit exposure.

The risk is already gone before you enter

Most credit strategies carry the event risk — will the capital raise complete, will the refinancing close. This strategy enters only after those questions are answered. The position is sized for a cleaner, more bounded risk than existed before.

A return stream equities don't replicate

Spread compression and carry on bonds of fundamentally improved issuers. The driver is balance-sheet change, not rates, not equity markets, not macro direction. In 2020, the strategy entered three positions during the COVID drawdown and finished the year without loss.

Every position is explainable

Each trade is anchored to a specific, documented event. Entry, catalyst, repricing thesis, exit — all on record. The investment committee rationale is built into the process, not written after the fact.

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See the live trade record.

Ten positions. Audited returns from entry to exit. Every catalyst documented.

Get in Touch

See the live trade record.

Ten positions. Audited returns from entry to exit. Every catalyst documented.

Get in Touch

See the live trade record.

Ten positions. Audited returns from entry to exit. Every catalyst documented.

Selected research notes on macro regimes, risk dynamics, and portfolio implications across market cycles.

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