Executive Summary   The Eurozone is entering Q4 2025 with clearer signs of cyclical improvement. Composite PMIs have firmed above 52, supported by a steady recovery in real disposable income and a turning inventory cycle. GDP is now tracking  0.4–0.5% QoQ , well above the ECB’s earlier expectations. Monetary policy remains in “wait-and-watch” mode: the ECB is firmly on hold at a 2.00% deposit rate, with a high bar for further action. Inflation is close to target, labour marke

There’s a growing anxiety among market participants about where we stand in the economic cycle. The question keeps surfacing—what stage are we in, and what comes next? Yet any clear-cut answer is increasingly elusive. The conventional business cycle framework—relying on output, inflation, and employment—is proving inadequate. Since 2008, and especially after the COVID shock, policy distortions and geopolitical dislocations have severed the link between traditional macro indic

Executive Summary Thesis.  Argentina’s long stagnation stems from a rent-seeking “Bermuda Triangle” of unions, corporate leaders, and the Peronist party (the “casta”). Sturzenegger argues for a revolutionary deregulation : eliminate legal privileges, break monopolies, and restore competition. Early results.  Rapid primary surplus via ~5% spending cuts; social transfers +40%  to end clientelism (by disintermediating middlemen); sweeping Decree 7023 to liberalise rents and tel

In Simplify’s March 2025 newsletter ( Link ), we anticipated this moment: stock picking is making a comeback. 2025’s volatility has reawakened interest in active selection, and we’ve responded by launching a subscription service at 20Quant — on top of implementing this strategy, as usual, within the Simplify Partners funds  — giving investors direct access to thematic and ad hoc single-name portfolios curated by the advisory team. After nearly a decade of outflows, stock-pick

In asset management—and especially when you’re in a leadership position like CEO or founder—one of the paradoxes is that you can feel...

Despite the market’s resilience and the return to a “quiet” Turbulence regime, the SPX DeMark setup now flashes tactical caution....

This issue compares the traditional Volatility Index (VIX) with the Turbulence Index (TI), emphasizing why the latter offers a...

The U.S. moves toward taxing foreign capital — and it’s not just about politics The “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB), recently passed in...

20-Year Total Return Comparison (2003–2023) Over the past two decades, Berkshire Hathaway’s stock performance has roughly matched the S&P...

Despite a significant -9% depreciation since January, the U.S. dollar appears poised for further downside. While short-term technical...

Background: Trump’s Announcements and Market Volatility Between 2017 and 2021, President Donald Trump’s public statements – from tweets...

The equity rally in Europe throughout 2024 and early 2025 has proven as short-lived as we expected—confirming the fragilities we...

Despite persistent policy uncertainty under the new US administration, the foundational drivers of US economic preeminence remain intact....

Private credit – loans made by non-bank lenders to mostly mid-sized, non-public companies – has been offering yields near 9% (often even...

Copper Prices Continue to Gain Momentum Copper remains in an upward trend, with London Metal Exchange (LME) prices rising to $9,331 per...

The outlook for U.S. Treasuries in 2025 is compelling, driven by easing labour market pressures, continued disinflationary trends, and...

Some time ago, I wrote about Russia’s expansion of naval and commercial shipping routes in the Arctic, positioning itself as a dominant...